Media Buying Briefing: Q4 wobbles a bit, and buyers wonder how it will affect 2026 spending

It seems mixed signals are all over the place in the fourth-quarter ad marketplace, with some media buyers reporting a recent drop-off in ad spend from a number of categories, while others acknowledge a slowdown but not of any amount that rings alarm bells for 2026. One chief media officer even said he’s seen an uptick in business since the beginning of the quarter.

What’s going on? For one thing, the fact that economic signals are just short of haywire means no advertiser, much less their media agency, can set a clear-cut path forward. Between up-and-down tariffs, the longest U.S. federal government shutdown in history (just concluded but the impact is still being felt), and lingering inflation concerns, things are far from stable.

That reality has led to reports of some publishers and sellers offering incentives to land more business and hit 2025 sales goals, including beta-testing opportunities. And if historical precedent holds, the instability impacting the market today could easily lead to a softer Q1 2026.

“It’s not a soft market. I just got two significant budgets handed to me for the rest of Q4,” said one veteran buyer at a multi-agency group. “But it’s definitely softer than how it started.”

Part of that softness comes from larger advertisers committing more dollars upfront to secure favorable rates, leaving less to spend in scatter. That has left some connected TV players scrambling, since they were expecting more Q4 dollars to be available.

Performance also varies by funnel stage. Right now, upper-funnel brand marketing is seeing renewed focus.

“Across all of the ad spend we manage across digital, traditional, and retail media networks, we are seeing year-over-year mid and lower funnel spend down 8% and top-of-funnel investments up 26%,” said Tucker Matheson, co-founder of Markacy. That shift suggests brands are prioritizing awareness over conversion with their next dollar.

David Dweck, president of Go Fish Digital, said the market feels softer than what he’s seen since the pandemic disrupted ad spend patterns.

“We’re expecting to have a softer holiday than the last three to five years,” said Dweck, pointing to a drop in consumer spending. “We saw a bit of a higher spike in mid-October, but it’s trailed off to the point that it’s been down 10% the last two weeks.”

Some categories, including CPG and financial services, are pulling back. Others, like healthcare and pharma, are increasing spend, especially in CTV and retail media.

Another signal of softness is the rise in incentives from sellers, particularly in second-tier CTV and digital audio. Buyers report more aggressive outreach, added-value offers, and even access to beta programs in exchange for spend commitments.

“It sounds like sales goals probably aren’t getting hit,” said one buyer, noting the unusual timing of these offers late in the year.

Some agency leaders also point to principal media commitments from holding companies as a factor influencing inventory availability. As year-end commitments come due, agencies may be holding more inventory than usual if Q4 budgets are lighter than expected.

So what does this mean for 2026?

Historically, weak Q4 momentum can carry into a slower start to the next year. Agencies are already planning for continued volatility.

Clients are expected to increase spend modestly, around 2% to 4%, while also factoring in media inflation and ongoing uncertainty.

At the same time, major events in 2026, including the Winter Olympics, Super Bowl, World Cup, and midterm elections, are expected to absorb a significant share of ad inventory.

For now, no one is panicking. But the underlying unease in the market is clear.

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Originally published in Digiday.